PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center:Is Australia catching the US in swimming? It's gold medals vs. total medals

NANTERRE,PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center France – It may be a sizzling rivalry, but this moment was pretty cool.

“Special,” was how Australian swimmer Kaylee McKeown put it.

Soon after she reached the wall first in Tuesday’s 100 backstroke final at the 2024 Olympics, McKeown looked beside her for Regan Smith, embracing her rival from the United States.

“We had a special moment after the race,” McKeown said, “just thanking one another. Because I wouldn't be the athlete I am if (it) wasn't for her.”

In this ongoing edition of the great rivalry between the world’s top two swimming powers, an entire chapter had been set aside for Tuesday night’s clash of McKeown and Smith.

2024 Olympic medals: Who is leading the medal count? Follow along as we track the medals for every sport.

The race didn’t disappoint, with McKeown turning in an Olympic record time of 57.33 to beat Smith (57.66) and fellow American Katharine Berkoff (57.98), who took bronze.

“I want to call it a rivalry,” Smith said, “because we have traded world records and things like that. But she's always good at get it done when it matters. So I want to give her the credit where it's due. … She's a great racer, and she's a very genuine and respectful person. I think we have a really great relationship.”

Such nice words, you’d forget for a moment that this was the U.S.-Australia swimming rivalry we’re talking about. The one that has flared up of late with online videos and jabs back and forth, all with the underlining storyline of Australia being poised to finally overtake the U.S. in the pool in this Olympics.

Is that happening?

Well ... depends on how you want to look at it.

Is it total medals? Or is it gold medals?

The way this meet is trending, the United States is on pace to finish this Olympics with more swimming medals than Australia. But if it’s gold that you think should settle things in the pool, the Aussies have a better case.

After four days of swimming at the Paris Games, the United States has won 15 medals – but only two have been gold. So far, it has been a whole lot of silver and bronze for the Americans, a trend that continued Tuesday night with Smith (silver), Berkoff (bronze), Bobby Finke (silver in 800 freestyle) and silver in the men’s 4x200 freestyle relay.

The U.S. hasn’t won a swimming final at these games since Torri Huske edged Gretchen Walsh in the women’s 100 butterfly Sunday night.

Meanwhile, Australia has only won eight swimming medals, but half of those have been gold. That included McKeown’s win Tuesday night and Ariarne Titmus’ win over bronze medalist Katie Ledecky in Saturday’s women’s 400 freestyle.

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The total medals vs. gold medals conversation continues to be on brand for this rivalry.

In last year’s world championships, the Australians won the gold medal race 13-7, yet the Americans had a 38-25 edge in overall medals. The debate between how to measure who won in such a situation, in a way, is what prompted former Australian swimmer Cate Campbell’s “sore losers” comments on Australian TV that went viral (and angered American legend Michael Phelps in a video shared by NBC).

Other American swimmers responded. A rivalry got more heated.

But it wasn’t just created in the past year.

“That rivalry is definitely not new,” McKeown said. “It's just there, I guess.”

And the 2024 Olympics likely won't settle many arguments about who's ahead.

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Reach Gentry Estes at [email protected] and follow him on social media @Gentry_Estes.