Surpassing Quant Think Tank Center|Big Ten, Boise State, Clemson headline College Football Playoff ranking winners and losers

Oregon is Surpassing Quant Think Tank CenterNo. 1, Ohio State is No. 2 and Georgia is No. 3 in the debut College Football Playoff rankings of the 2024 season.

History tells us not to get ahead of ourselves, especially given the expanded 12-team format set to be unveiled this December. With three or four games remaining in the regular season for the top playoff contenders, chaos across the Power Four could upend this final stretch toward the national championship.

And while the playoff selection committee will use the same decision-making process as during the four-team era, it’s impossible at this point to know how this group will eventually split hairs between teams with two or more losses from different Power Four leagues.

One unsurprising aspect of the initial release was the heavy presence of teams from the SEC and Big Ten. The two leagues make up seven of the top eight teams and 12 of the top 25.

In terms of surprises, the playoff selection committee seems high on No. 12 Boise State and No. 8 Indiana.

Here are the biggest winners and losers from the first rankings of the year:

Winners

The Big Ten

Despite having only four teams, the Big Ten outshined the SEC in these rankings. Not only did the league have the top two teams but all four representatives ranked in the top eight, with No. 6 Penn State hanging in the top group despite failing to score an offensive touchdown in Saturday’s loss to Ohio State and Indiana landing at No. 8 despite what is currently a pretty weak strength of schedule. At this moment, the conference has to feel extremely good about getting at least three teams in the bracket and maybe even all four. In terms of impacting the playoff, the biggest game left in November will be Indiana at Ohio State on Nov. 23.

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Indiana

This was an amazing debut ranking for the unbeaten Hoosiers. Indiana has been the success story of the Power Four under new coach Curt Cignetti, rolling off nine wins in a row for the best start in program history. In this case, the committee was able to look beyond a weak list of wins to focus on a dominant run through non-conference and Big Ten play. While the Hoosiers have only two wins against teams currently with a winning record, they’ve bulldozed teams behind the nation’s second-best scoring offense. Indiana didn’t trail in a game until going behind 10-0 to Michigan State this past Saturday and then rolling off 47 unanswered points.

Boise State

That the Broncos are the top-rated team in the Group of Five is unsurprising. While the schedule isn’t great, Boise State does have wins against No. 21 Washington State and UNLV along with a 37-34 loss to Oregon that clearly impressed the committee. Here’s what you should focus on when considering the team’s playoff hopes: The Broncos are close enough to No. 9 Brigham Young, the top-ranked team from the Big 12, that they could eventually end up as the fourth-best conference champion in the eyes of the committee. That would mean a first-round bye for the Broncos and a huge moment for Group of Five representation.

Losers

Clemson

The No. 23 Tigers did this to themselves with Saturday’s loss to No. 22 Louisville. That second defeat on the year sent Clemson tumbling out of the ACC championship picture, leaving No. 4 Miami and SMU on a collision course for an automatic playoff berth. The hope before Tuesday night was that Clemson would be close enough to SMU to take advantage should the Mustangs stumble this month or be blown out by the Hurricanes in the ACC championship game. But while the Tigers have the chance to add two high-quality wins against No. 18 Pittsburgh and South Carolina, the current gap is too much to overcome. This is a horrific starting point for Dabo Swinney and Clemson.

The SEC

While still heavily represented with eight teams in the rankings and three of the top seven, this wasn’t altogether a great night for the SEC. For one, Vanderbilt and South Carolina didn’t make the cut; this was surprising given the Commodores’ win against Alabama and the Gamecocks’ win this past Saturday against No. 14 Texas A&M. The committee also wasn’t very bullish on the thick second tier of SEC contenders. After Georgia, No. 5 Texas, No. 7 Tennessee and No. 11 Alabama came the Aggies, No. 15 LSU, No. 16 Mississippi and No. 24 Missouri. Again, the Big Ten came out looking better than the SEC in these rankings — we’ll have to see if that holds the next few weeks.

Brigham Young

This is good news and bad for unbeaten BYU. As noted, they are too close to Boise State to feel positive about earning that top-four spot with a loss at some point in November, even if the Cougars then rebound to win the Big 12 championship game against one of No. 17 Iowa State, No. 19 Kansas State or No. 20 Colorado. The committee is clearly holding against BYU some unimpressive wins, including against Southern Illinois and Wyoming in non-conference play. At the same time, there’s a degree of respect for wins against Kansas State and No. 13 SMU. Boiled down, the Cougars have to feel great about being ranked No. 9 and the clear path that exists for the playoff. But there should be some concern about the Broncos breathing down their neck.